Ready to take another leap?
The other day a tweet from aviation social media expert Shashank, from Simpliflying caught my attention, it contained a quote from Splatf, a tehcnology blog that I also follow, it stated "The airplane industry needs its iPhone".
If you go to the article in question you will see what this means: there has been little radical innovation in the aircraft industry in the last few decades, with the two main manufacturers (plus some smaller ones) basically delivering incremental improvements of aircraft types that, in their basic form, have been in service for a really long time. The first Boeing 737 first flew in 1967!
Of course, the Boeing 737s that are being built today are superior in many ways to those earlier versions, but it could be argued that they are not "revolutionarily different". There has not been a leap as significant as the one that, for example, the Boeing 707 represented over the previous piston-engined planes!
This is not the only voice I hear recently warning that the rate of technological innovation has slowed downed over the last few decades, not only in aviation but in other industries too.
You could say the composite materials that make most of the recently released Boeing 787 Dreamliner certainly qualify as an important innovation, but, despite all these improvements, which I, as an aviation enthusiast, appreciate, might be far from evident to the average airline passenger and, to the non-expert eye, a Boeing 787 looks unremarkably similar to a 1970s airliner.
This is not the only voice I hear recently warning that the rate of technological innovation has slowed downed over the last few decades, not only in aviation but in other industries too.
You could say the composite materials that make most of the recently released Boeing 787 Dreamliner certainly qualify as an important innovation, but, despite all these improvements, which I, as an aviation enthusiast, appreciate, might be far from evident to the average airline passenger and, to the non-expert eye, a Boeing 787 looks unremarkably similar to a 1970s airliner.
A number of revolutionary concepts have been put forward in the last few years but the chances of them becoming a relity in the foreseeable future are, a priory, very slim. And it is understandable why: developing a new generation of airliners is such a complex, risky and capital-intensive task (we have got a taste of what this means with the A380 and Boeing 787 production delays) that it is no wonder that Boeing and Airbus prefer to squeeze further all improvements they can from their existing aircraft portfolio, and this is why we have the Airbus 320 Neo and the Boeing 737 Max, which I am sure are superb airplanes, but delivering just marginal improvements over the current family of aircraft.
Plus, why would you create an entirely new aircraft that renders most of your client's fleets obsolete in one go when you have a comfortable hold of this market? remember what happen when the Royal Navy introduced the first Dreadnought? Almost all its fleet became obsolete overnight and startup navies (Germany) spotted the chance to catch up fast.
Well, they risk being disrupted, such as Nokia got disrupted by Apple. and any such breakthrough is likely to come from outsiders...Will it be mass-market hypersonic flight? or the flying car?
Source: Wikipedia
Who knows?...by definition, breakthroughs are impossible to predict...
What do you think? Where is aviation's next big leap going to come from?
